As the end of 2024 approached ULA was optimistic for their upcoming 2025 launch campaign, which was slated to include up to 20 combined launches of their Atlas V and Vulcan Centaur rockets. However as 2025 came and went, only 6 of those came to fruition.

There is no one specific reason why this happened, as 2025 was ultimately one of ULA’s most tumultuous years in its 19 year history. However there is one event that kicked off the start of the problems.

Vulcan’s Near Miss

In October 2024, Vulcan launched on its already delayed second certification flight. That mission had been planned to carry Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser Tenacity, but continued delays to Tenacity meant that ULA could no longer wait, and would fly Cert-2 without a payload.

The Vulcan rocket lifted off nominally, however around 26 seconds into flight, GEM-63XL number one burned through its nozzle casing. 12 seconds later, the entire nozzle broke free.

As the rocket lurched to the side, the twin BE4s quickly corrected for the rockets now lopsided thrust. Ultimately the Cert-2 mission survived this anomaly, and even completed the most accurate final orbit insertion in ULA history. However the lingering questions from the failed SRB nozzle quickly put a stop to the planned ramp up in launches in 2025.

ULA and Northrop Grumman, the manufacturer of the GEM-63XL, opened an investigation immediately into the booster’s failure. As part of this, they recovered both boosters from the ocean floor as well as the shed nozzle which had landed near to the launch site on US Space Force property.

With the recovery investigators were able to pinpoint a failed section of insulation in the nozzles throat assembly. This failure allowed the hot gasses of the SRB to erode away at the nozzle faster than intended, ultimately resulting in it burning through and the subsequent “liberation” from the rocket.

Following updates to the nozzle assembly, Northrop Grumman conducted a ground test firing of the GEM-63XL in February. That test, which used external heaters to replicate the conditions seen in flight by the Cert-2 motor, was successful and following a data review by the US Space Force, certified Vulcan in March 2025 to fly its first National Security mission later that year.

Space Force Readiness and Swaps

The US Space Force had originally been eyeing a number of launches of the Vulcan rocket in 2025, however consistent delays to satellite readiness for multiple missions continued to push launches back and ultimately resulted in only USSF-106 making it to the launch site for an August liftoff. That mission marked Vulcan’s return to flight from the Cert-2 anomaly, and the first national security launch for the new rocket.

Another block for ULA though came in the form of mission swaps. ULA had originally been contracted to launch the GPS III-07 and 08 missions on the Vulcan rocket. But in 2024 ULA and the USSF agreed to swap the 07 mission to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 in exchange for 09 to allow Sierra Space more time to ready their Dream Chaser for the originally planned Cert-2 profile. However following the Cert-2 anomaly, SV08 was also swapped to Falcon 9, with ULA receiving the GPS IIIF-01 launch from Falcon Heavy.

Amazon’s Delays

However, ULA was not just counting on Vulcan for a busy year. One of the payloads they were eying for their initial 2025 plans was Amazon’s Project Kuiper, now known as Amazon Leo. Initial plans had projected potentially 15 or more launches for the internet constellation across their rockets, including flying out all eight of the remaining non-Starliner Atlas V rockets.

Early discussions in the year looked at launching the first batch potentially in January, using an Atlas V rocket, however the initial delivery rate of satellites from the Washington production facility quickly made it clear that they would not be ready to support the quick ramp-up of launches ULA had expected.

The first batch of 27 satellites was delivered to the launch site on March 31st, before being stacked on top of the Atlas V rocket. The launch was slated for just a few days later on April 9th, however following a batch of rough weather and a series of range conflicts from military testing, the launch was delayed to April 28th before finally lifting off successfully.

Amazon would ultimately only be able to support 7 launches in 2025, with Atlas V flying 4 launches of 27 satellites each, and SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launching the other 3 with 24 satellite each.

A Change in Leadership

ULA’s struggles in 2025 were a mix of their own doing and outside factors, but as the year came to an end there was one final twist to the story. Longtime CEO Tory Bruno, resigned and took a new position as the President of Blue National Security at rival and engine supplier Blue Origin.

Blue Origin had long sought after Tory Bruno, including offers for him to replace former CEO Bob Smith in 2023 that Bruno turned down. But with Vulcan now concluding its major development and moving into steady state production, it does make sense that Bruno, who’s career has been near exclusively involved in development heavy programs, would move on to a position where he would again be involved in developing new systems to bring to market.

ULA has currently appointed John Elbon, their former COO, as their interim CEO.

New Year Same Promise

Much of the promises from ULA are the same in 2026 as they were in 2025. Ramp up cadence and be ready. But with how 2025 shook down, the question remains of can they hit their targets. As far as ULA is concerned, it will come down to their customers.

At Space Launch Complex 41, ULA has already stacked the Vulcan rocket for the USSF-87 mission inside of VIF-G and is now waiting for the payload to arrive from Astrotech, where it is currently being fueled and integrated with the rocket’s payload fairing.

Meanwhile just down the road at the newly refurbished VIF-A, preparations are underway for the first Vulcan Amazon mission, LV-01. This flight will be the first to use the new VIF as well as the new second Vulcan Launch Platform, allowing ULA to execute two launch campaigns simultaneously from Cape Canaveral.

ULA’s transportation ship, the RS Rocketship, is also underway with the first Vulcan rocket bound for Vandenberg Space Force Base. ULA recently completed upgrades to Space Launch Complex 3E, converting it from Atlas V to Vulcan over the past 3 years. The specific mission for the first west coast Vulcan has yet to be identified, but is potentially one of the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 launches for their constellation.

While ULA may not have been launching as much in 2025 as they had planned, that did not stop them from producing rockets, with around 20 completed vehicles currently in storage. A number of these are here at Cape Canaveral, but most are in their finished goods warehouse in Decatur Alabama, awaiting their ride to the launch site.

That ride however may not be on the RS Rocketship, as delivery of ULA’s second cargo ship is expected to occur in the first half of this year. The RS Spaceship, a slightly upgraded sister ship to Rocketship, is nearing completion at Bollinger shipyard in Louisiana. With both ships up and running, ULA expects to be able to deliver rockets faster than they need them to both launch sites without having to stop deliveries for 8+ weeks to Cape Canaveral while delivering to Vandenberg.

For ULA, 2026 could be their biggest year yet. The rockets are ready, the facilities are finished, but that will only matter if their payloads are ready to fly.